Political demography, as a field of inquiry, examines the interplay between population dynamics and political processes. It addresses how demographic changes such as migration, fertility, mortality, and population distribution influence governance, policy-making, and the stability of states. In Bangladesh, one of the most pressing examples of this dynamic is the Rohingya refugee crisis. Since the late 1970s, Bangladesh has hosted successive waves of Rohingya refugees fleeing persecution in Myanmar, with the largest influx occurring in 2016–2017, when over 700,000 people crossed the border within months. Today, Bangladesh shelters more than 1 million Rohingya, making it one of the largest refugee-hosting countries in the world.

The scale of this migration has not only created a humanitarian crisis but also reshaped the political demography of Bangladesh, particularly in Cox’s Bazar, where the refugee population outnumbers locals in several upazilas. This demographic reality has altered population balances, created livelihood competition, and reshaped both local governance and national politics. Furthermore, the Rohingya crisis has become deeply entangled with Bangladesh’s foreign policy, regional geopolitics, and domestic political debates. Examining the Rohingya situation through the lens of political demography thus provides valuable insights into the broader intersections of migration, politics, and human geography.

Historical Context of Rohingya Migration

The Rohingya, a predominantly Muslim ethnic minority from Myanmar’s Rakhine State, have long been denied recognition and citizenship by the Myanmar government. Their statelessness stems from Myanmar’s 1982 Citizenship Law, which excluded them from the country’s list of recognized ethnic groups. Historical episodes of persecution and violence triggered several migration waves into Bangladesh:

• 1978: The first major influx occurred when the Myanmar military launched “Operation Dragon King,” driving around 200,000 Rohingya into Bangladesh.

• 1991–1992: Another military campaign forced nearly 250,000 Rohingya to flee. While many were later repatriated under international pressure, thousands remained in Bangladesh.

• 2016–2017: The largest and most devastating wave followed “clearance operations” by Myanmar’s military, described by the UN as ethnic cleansing. Between August 2016 and August 2017, more than 700,000 Rohingya crossed into Bangladesh, adding to the existing refugee population.

These repeated inflows have transformed Cox’s Bazar into one of the world’s largest refugee settlements. The camps—particularly Kutupalong, now the largest refugee camp globally—are not temporary shelters but have become permanent demographic fixtures.

Political Demography and Governance Challenges

The Rohingya influx has placed immense strain on Bangladesh’s governance structures, raising issues that transcend humanitarian aid.

Local Governance: Elected representatives in Cox’s Bazar face mounting challenges as demands exceed service capacities. Refugees, lacking voting rights, remain politically invisible, but their presence deeply influences local politics. For example, local leaders must balance the interests of host communities with the needs of refugees, often leading to tensions.

National Politics: The refugee issue has become a recurring subject in electoral campaigns, parliamentary debates, and party politics. Political parties often invoke the crisis to emphasize nationalism, border security, and international diplomacy.

Security Concerns: The concentration of a stateless, marginalized population poses security risks, including cross-border crime, radicalization concerns, and tensions with local populations. Such dynamics highlight how demography intersects with security in shaping political agendas.

Resource Allocation: Aid flows, mostly managed by international organizations, create parallel governance structures that sometimes bypass local administration. This duality has weakened the authority of local government institutions, reshaping political dynamics on the ground.

Thus, the Rohingya presence is not only a humanitarian challenge but also a governance dilemma—where questions of authority, accountability, and representation are constantly renegotiated.

Impact on Local Livelihoods and Urban Spaces

Human geography emphasizes the relationship between people and space. The Rohingya influx has restructured spatial and economic relations in Cox’s Bazar and beyond.

Labor Market Competition: Refugees, though officially barred from formal employment, engage in informal work such as day labor, fishing, and construction. This undercuts local wages and heightens resentment among host communities.

Aid Economy: The refugee presence has created a parallel aid-based economy. While NGOs and international organizations provide jobs for locals, the dependency on aid reshapes local social hierarchies and consumption patterns.

Urban Migration: Spillover migration into Dhaka and Chattogram demonstrates how refugee issues extend beyond camps. Rohingya individuals often move secretly, working as rickshaw pullers, domestic workers, or in low-wage industries, further complicating urban demographic dynamics.

These livelihood disruptions underscore the spatial dimensions of political demography—where migration transforms not only numbers but also the lived geographies of everyday life.

National and Regional Political Implications

The Rohingya crisis is deeply enmeshed in both domestic and international politics.

Bangladesh–Myanmar Relations: Despite repeated bilateral negotiations, Myanmar has resisted large-scale repatriation, leaving Bangladesh to bear the humanitarian burden. This unresolved issue complicates bilateral relations.

Global Geopolitics: The crisis highlights the competing interests of China, India, and Western powers. China and Russia often shield Myanmar diplomatically, limiting international pressure. Bangladesh, in turn, leverages the crisis to secure aid and strengthen alliances.

Domestic Political Discourse: Within Bangladesh, political parties use the Rohingya issue to highlight their nationalist credentials. The ruling Awami League frames its response as a humanitarian achievement, while opposition parties criticize the long-term consequences for sovereignty and security.

Thus, the Rohingya crisis illustrates how migration alters not only local demography but also national political alignments and international diplomacy.

Theoretical Lens: Political Demography and Human Geography

Political demography provides a powerful framework for analyzing the Rohingya crisis. The case illustrates several theoretical principles:

Population–Politics Nexus: Sudden population inflows reshape political institutions, from local councils in Cox’s Bazar to national parliaments.

State Capacity: The crisis tests Bangladesh’s state capacity, forcing the government to manage humanitarian aid, negotiate international diplomacy, and maintain domestic stability simultaneously.

Migration Pressures: Migration challenges the notion of national borders, sovereignty, and citizenship. The statelessness of the Rohingya underscores how political demography intersects with the politics of belonging.

Human Geography: The crisis reconfigures spaces of governance, livelihoods, and settlement patterns, demonstrating how demographic changes manifest spatially.

Through this lens, the Rohingya crisis is not an isolated humanitarian emergency but a broader case study in how migration reshapes political and geographic landscapes.